From the HRA Journal: Issue 308
Trade wars and geopolitics, along with signs of decelerating economies around the globe, continue to support bullion prices. The new gold bull market is very much official now. Even if we get some near-term pullback-and we should hope for one-I think the die is cast.
Equities have been fairly calm, given all the craziness at a political level. Falling bond yields have cushioned the stock market, though you can see traders-final--starting to ask themselves WHY yields are so weak everywhere. Expect volatility to be high for an extended period.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 305
Saved by the bell, or the tweet I should say. I was putting this extended version to bed when US President Trump decided he'd go after yet another major trading partner.
That was a little too much for Wall St, and finally generated enough concern to flatten bond yields, again, and generate strong buying that lifted gold prices back through $1300/oz. At this point, it's a bounce, not a trend, but I think gold now goes higher if we don't quickly see a moderation in the multi-front trade war Trump seems committed to.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 304
What, me worry? Wall St continues to be remarkably calm in the face of a blow up of China-US trade talks. Trump is now threatening to raise tariffs on ALL Chinese imports to 25%. No one knows if that is just bluster – Wall St seems to assume it is – but that seems like an over-optimistic assumption with this particular President.
Lack of fear and a less accommodating US Federal Reserve continues to weigh on resources and especially on gold. We may see a little more base metal weakness to go with it if the trade war really heats up, I’m not sure new tariffs will really impact base metal demand in China but a lot of traders surely think it will, which amounts to the same thing in practice, in the short run at least. Most of the biggest Chinese exports to the US (like mobile phones) are relatively light users of metals. The actual impact on base metal demand will be smaller than the feared impact, but it’s the latter that will drive trading I’m afraid.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 303
The editorial in this issue deals with a subject that I think is too ignored. It's one of THE main reasons for the current bull market in NY but rarely gets talked about, and almost never gets talked about for what it truly is, which is a form of insider trading. I don't want to sound like I condone insider trading. But I do get sick of Wall St being holier than thou when it comes to junior markets. Wall St has no reason to feel virtuous. To paraphrase the old saying in tech- when it comes to Wall St, insider trading isn't a bug, it's a feature.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 302
The FOMC cranked up the dovishness yesterday, after I’d finished the editorial naturally. It’s really just more of the same and doesn’t change the message, just reinforces it. Added dovishness has given gold a bounce, but it’s still fighting against the extreme “risk on” stance on Wall St. Traders just don’t care that the Fed is clearly worried about a substantial economic slowdown.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 301
Wall St continues to bask in the love of the FOMC, with lots of soothing comments to warm the cockles of trader's hearts and bring on the bids.
I've still got some real concerns about the US economy as the year wears on, but maybe all this stock market joy turns things around. Some rapidly deteriorating economic readings will need continued attention though.
Gold's moving again, just in time for the run-up to the annual PDAC conference in Toronto, and the Metals Investment Forum that precedes it. Copper is trading very well too. While I've pointed out many times that this isn't as unusual as some think, I'm sure generalists at least will make much of the fact that bullion is moving higher in tandem with the $USD.
Gold is moving higher on straight up demand, not as the "anti-dollar". To my mind, this increases the odds of this move having some "legs". That's good, since I still think the important price level lies on the other side of the $1350 mark. Reaching the $1360's is what would really make the generalists pay attention.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 299-300
After weeks of slow news flow, we got the deluge around MIF and Roundup, with several companies on the HRA list putting out major news. Dealing with that held up the issue a bit. It's not a double issue because it's a bit late. It's a double because all the long updates and addition of a new gold explorer to the HRA Journal list means its long. 40 pages long to be exact.
The Fed came to the rescue of Wall St much more quickly and forcefully than I expected. And it seems every member of the FOMC is sticking to the dovish script now. That has reversed the dive on the SPX, and it's not hurting the gold price either. Base metals are holding up. They will do better if the China-US trade dispute ever gets settled. A lower USD would help too, but economic readings out of Europe and Asia have been weaker than the US lately so the greenback is holding up.
Much more news flow this week, some of it clearly timed for presentation and/or Core Shack presence at this years Cordilleran Roundup. The Roundup is the regional version of the PDAC, a technical rather than an investment show. It does attract some funds and analysts though and companies time news for it, as much for meetings held outside the conference as the conference itself.
Before commenting on news, I should comment on the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting. I'll have a bit more colour and background in the next Journal but, for now, suffice it to say that the FOMC has helped strengthen the bullish move in gold that was already well underway.
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