Free Editorial
My Big Fat Chinese Plenum
From the November 29, 2013 HRA Journal: Issue 206
No, it's not a glandular condition. China's leaders concluded the third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress a couple of weeks ago. Party Congresses last for five years and Plenums (full meetings) are annual except for the first year of each Congress where there might be two or three full meetings.
Traditionally, the third Plenum is the one where new leadership lays out its long term goals and strategies and it has been third Plenums that were the basis for sweeping changes in China's society and economy in the past 30 years. The mother of them all was the third Plenum in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping started China down the path to "Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics". This was the first third Plenum since the ascension of Chinese leader Li Keqiang and expected to be particularly important.
Return of the Taper (Talk)
From the November 6, 2013 HRA Journal: Issue 205
Well, that didn’t take long. No sooner had the resource market started showing faint signs of life than the talk of a near term cut back in QE reared its head again. That combined with weakness in the Euro generated renewed selling across the commodity space. Traders are again left to wonder “Do we EVER get out of this mess?!”
I am less worried about the medium term than I was a couple of months ago, for reasons I touch on later in this article. That doesn’t help much in the short term. Many are wondering again if June was indeed a long term bottom for the Juniors. Do we get beat up again going through tax-loss selling season or can we find a late year bottom higher than the summer doldrums?
The New Abnormal
From the October 19th HRA Journal: Issue 204
The US dodged a bullet and the Vancouver Subscriber Investment Summit had a great turn out on the same day. Coincidence? I think not.
Seriously; thanks from Keith, Lawrence and I for the great turnout. I'd like to thank the companies that presented as they make these days possible. Last but definitely not least I congratulate Nichola Vermiere and Katy Severs for organizing a great event and doing all the hard work to make sure it was well attended and went off without a hitch. People thanked me for a great show but It's Nichola and Katy that do the heavy lifting. I just show up and try not to trip over the microphone wire. Read More
The Circus Is Back In Town
From the September HRA Journal: Issue 203
Well, the taper talk is still on but it's playing second fiddle to Washington's annual game of chicken. The next month will be all about US government shutdown and a game of "will they or won't they?" on the debt ceiling. I'm pretty convinced a sizeable percentage of the US Congress might be clinically insane but I can't believe they will actually go over the debt cliff. It's clear from the relatively calm markets that few other traders believe it either. Read More
The Other Shoe: Gold and the Fed Taper
From the September HRA Journal
Market action has been constructive but not instructive. While the explorers haven't seen much price movement volumes have improved for the better names and I am starting to see a little more life in the financing market. Read More
Gold and Silver: Once More into the Breach
From the August HRA Journal
The gold market looks like it's finally put in a bottom but this is a very recent development and things could still go awry. I don't really expect that but there is still the actual start of tapering to contend with. Wall St expects that next month and isn't pleased at the prospect. I don't expect "apocalypse Wall St" but given the strong run a 10%+ September-October correction would be neither shocking nor really that scary. Read More
Signs Of A Bottom: Head Office Edition
From the July HRA Journal
As things go from bad to worse for so much of the mining and exploration sector I thought it was time to collect up some anecdotal evidence of bottoming. This won’t be based on charts or tables (though I might toss in a couple later) but from empirical observation. Read More
The Good News Bears
From The June 2013 HRA Journal
Gold continues to struggle and so do explorers. I am seeing encouragement in the trading of some discovery stories but this is a very small subset of the junior sector.
I think the precious metals markets are well set up for a rally but gold rallies don’t usually happen in the summer. It’s still possible but I don’t think a rally strong enough to drag the juniors along for the ride can be assumed in the short term. Read More
There May Be A Test Later
From the May 2013 HRA Dispatch
Since the price dive in April, gold fought its way back to $1480 before succumbing to renewed selling as general equity indices rallied and the US Dollar took off. It has traded back close to, but above, it’s April low before regaining some traction. As this was written gold is trading in the $1380 range.
As long as gold can continue to gain the recent trading activity has the look of a double bottom. This is a strong technical formation, but it won’t be considered confirmed unless gold manages to get back above its late April/early May high. This may not be easy as we enter the traditionally weak period for physical demand but there are other factors at work. Read More
Resource Sector Paradigm Shift: Part II
From The April 2013 HRA Journal
There was little reason for optimism and certainly no optimists that we could find in the junior space this month.
This month’s editorial continues the discussion of what large companies seem to be looking for and what Juniors should be looking for too. This sort of shift is not a short term scenario. By definition it’s going to take some time for companies to retool and approach projects from a different direction with different assumptions. Even then, this will only work for a sub set of companies. Read More
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