From the September HRA Journal: Issue 203
Well, the taper talk is still on but it's playing second fiddle to Washington's annual game of chicken. The next month will be all about US government shutdown and a game of "will they or won't they?" on the debt ceiling. I'm pretty convinced a sizeable percentage of the US Congress might be clinically insane but I can't believe they will actually go over the debt cliff. It's clear from the relatively calm markets that few other traders believe it either. Read More
From the September HRA Journal
Market action has been constructive but not instructive. While the explorers haven't seen much price movement volumes have improved for the better names and I am starting to see a little more life in the financing market. Read More
From the August HRA Journal
The gold market looks like it's finally put in a bottom but this is a very recent development and things could still go awry. I don't really expect that but there is still the actual start of tapering to contend with. Wall St expects that next month and isn't pleased at the prospect. I don't expect "apocalypse Wall St" but given the strong run a 10%+ September-October correction would be neither shocking nor really that scary. Read More
From the July HRA Journal
As things go from bad to worse for so much of the mining and exploration sector I thought it was time to collect up some anecdotal evidence of bottoming. This won’t be based on charts or tables (though I might toss in a couple later) but from empirical observation. Read More
From The June 2013 HRA Journal
Gold continues to struggle and so do explorers. I am seeing encouragement in the trading of some discovery stories but this is a very small subset of the junior sector.
I think the precious metals markets are well set up for a rally but gold rallies don’t usually happen in the summer. It’s still possible but I don’t think a rally strong enough to drag the juniors along for the ride can be assumed in the short term. Read More
From the May 2013 HRA Dispatch
Since the price dive in April, gold fought its way back to $1480 before succumbing to renewed selling as general equity indices rallied and the US Dollar took off. It has traded back close to, but above, it’s April low before regaining some traction. As this was written gold is trading in the $1380 range.
As long as gold can continue to gain the recent trading activity has the look of a double bottom. This is a strong technical formation, but it won’t be considered confirmed unless gold manages to get back above its late April/early May high. This may not be easy as we enter the traditionally weak period for physical demand but there are other factors at work. Read More
From The April 2013 HRA Journal
There was little reason for optimism and certainly no optimists that we could find in the junior space this month.
This month’s editorial continues the discussion of what large companies seem to be looking for and what Juniors should be looking for too. This sort of shift is not a short term scenario. By definition it’s going to take some time for companies to retool and approach projects from a different direction with different assumptions. Even then, this will only work for a sub set of companies. Read More
From The April 2013 HRA Dispatch
Just when it looked like things couldn't get worse they got a lot worse. The gold market endured its worst two day drop in 30 years when massive selling took the price to $1325. There were a lot of reasons given for the panic - and it was a panic - but the chief culprits seemed to be a short recommendation by Goldman Sachs, rumors of potential selling by several European central banks and fears that the US Fed was about to take the punch bowl away. Read More
From The March 2013 HRA Journal
There were a lot of long faces at the PDAC this year. Many of the companies there were pulled off the waiting list when long standing attendee companies decided there was no point having a booth. Others have expressed surprise that few companies seemed to be trying to market financings. This was taken as complacency but it felt more like resignation to me. For the record, resignation is better if you're a contrarian.
The editorial this month deals with the sea change that seems to have taken place among major companies. They are looking for a different type of project and that creates difficulties for Juniors that focused on things majors are not buying right now. It's a long topic and I will cover the remainder of it in the next issue. Read More
From The February 2013 HRA Journal
Juniors are still in flat-line mode (on a good day). A bunch of new resource estimates were not enough to make much difference though in my experience they often don't. There are enough people tracking most stocks that the market tends to have a fair idea of what a resource estimate will look like. Weakening gold and silver prices dampened the impact of even good numbers. Read More
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