Wall Street's B*tch?
From the HRA Journal: Issue 299-300
After weeks of slow news flow, we got the deluge around MIF and Roundup, with several companies on the HRA list putting out major news. Dealing with that held up the issue a bit. It's not a double issue because it's a bit late. It's a double because all the long updates and addition of a new gold explorer to the HRA Journal list means its long. 40 pages long to be exact.
The Fed came to the rescue of Wall St much more quickly and forcefully than I expected. And it seems every member of the FOMC is sticking to the dovish script now. That has reversed the dive on the SPX, and it's not hurting the gold price either. Base metals are holding up. They will do better if the China-US trade dispute ever gets settled. A lower USD would help too, but economic readings out of Europe and Asia have been weaker than the US lately so the greenback is holding up.
Much more news flow this week, some of it clearly timed for presentation and/or Core Shack presence at this years Cordilleran Roundup. The Roundup is the regional version of the PDAC, a technical rather than an investment show. It does attract some funds and analysts though and companies time news for it, as much for meetings held outside the conference as the conference itself.
Before commenting on news, I should comment on the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting. I'll have a bit more colour and background in the next Journal but, for now, suffice it to say that the FOMC has helped strengthen the bullish move in gold that was already well underway.
…Chicken, Egg, Chicken…
From the HRA Journal: Issue 298
This issue contains the first part of my start of the year editorial, focused on the equity markets, with a gold kicker at the end. Wall St, barely, avoided falling into a bear market late last month. I don't think we'll get through 2019 without a drop into Bear Market territory getting completed. I'm still not sure whether that will happen early or late in the year, though bear markets that start in Q1 are admittedly pretty rare.
The delay getting lab results and engineering studies continue. There is only a short list of updates this issue because so few companies reported anything. With a couple of important conferences dead ahead, I'm still hopeful the reporting situation improves through the next couple of weeks.
LUMP OF COAL
From the HRA Journal: Issue 297
The major markets got a lot more uncomfortable since the last issue, and that's saying something. It's not a bear market on Wall Street but it keeps heading that way.
I'm less concerned about continued drawdowns on Wall St than I am about a crash. Crashes take everything down with them while more measured declines–even big ones–allow for some rotation to sectors that look "cheap". The gold sector still has cheap in spades. We may be setting up for another early 2016 scenario where gold stocks–explorers included–hugely outperform other sectors of the market.
NOT A GOOD LOOK
From the HRA Journal: Issue 296
As I expected, Wall St went lower, though only slightly lower so far. I won't be surprised to see more lower lows before the current correction ends, though some near term catalysts discussed in the editorial will be the determining factor.
The gold price hasn't done anything much this month but is, arguably better set up now for gains than it's been for at least a few months. Too soon to tell if those gains will arrive but the same catalysts mentioned above apply to bullion.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 295
Wall St put in a correction as I expected it would. We've seen a recent bounce which has the street calmed down, though I'm not convinced yet we've seen the end of the downside.
Because of the political uncertainties, I decided to move the fuller comments on base metals back by one more issue. I'm not sure the outcome of the US midterms will change anything, but we may see a more conciliatory tome on trade after November 7th. Trade tensions have weighed so heavily on base metals that I want to see the politics play out a bit more.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 294
Yes, this issue is late, as have been a few others in the past few months. Please note my comments in the Update section introduction on page five where I detail my plan to address that issue.
We've got a more nervous market suddenly, which has been putting a bid under the gold price. Read More
Oops, He Did It Again
From the HRA Journal: Issue 293
So much for tons of results. As I explain in the Update introduction we've got lab slowdowns again. That will clear in coming weeks however.
I don't expect the slow down will affect results from the company that is the Extended Review this issue, thanks to its location. Good drill results are one thing that has gotten attention lately. This company has the potential to deliver impressive results on NEW targets. Make a point of reading that review.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 292
Events conspired to give us a small bounce in the gold price. Nothing amazing but at least a move in the right direction. The positive news was, for once, magnified in the junior sector. We just had the best couple of weeks on the Venture exchange we’ve had for a long time, including ten straight up days.
We can thank discovery stories for that, more than metals prices. I think there is reason to hope for better metals prices, especially in base metals if we ever see a reduction in trade tensions between China and the US. It doesn’t sound like the recent trade meetings went very well so we’re not there yet. China does seem to be trying to put a floor under its currency, which should help metal prices until some sort of trade resolution can be reached.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 291
We just had a civic holiday in Canada and resource traders surely felt like they needed one. If only so they could go another day without looking at their trading screens.
The main editorial is all about sentiment which is strongly and firmly negative for precious metals. Negative enough that it may generate a bounce soon though we'd be better off if a reversal came from some "event" that really cleared out short positions. Any number of things could create the spark that leads to a reversal though I don't see an obvious and immanent candidate at the moment. I do think things are now so negative that we can expect to see things start going our way "soon" on the gold side.
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