Free Editorial

Autumn Colours

From the HRA Journal: Issue 292

Events conspired to give us a small bounce in the gold price. Nothing amazing but at least a move in the right direction. The positive news was, for once, magnified in the junior sector. We just had the best couple of weeks on the Venture exchange we’ve had for a long time, including ten straight up days.

We can thank discovery stories for that, more than metals prices. I think there is reason to hope for better metals prices, especially in base metals if we ever see a reduction in trade tensions between China and the US. It doesn’t sound like the recent trade meetings went very well so we’re not there yet. China does seem to be trying to put a floor under its currency, which should help metal prices until some sort of trade resolution can be reached.

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From the HRA Journal: Issue 291

We just had a civic holiday in Canada and resource traders surely felt like they needed one. If only so they could go another day without looking at their trading screens.

The main editorial is all about sentiment which is strongly and firmly negative for precious metals. Negative enough that it may generate a bounce soon though we'd be better off if a reversal came from some "event" that really cleared out short positions. Any number of things could create the spark that leads to a reversal though I don't see an obvious and immanent candidate at the moment. I do think things are now so negative that we can expect to see things start going our way "soon" on the gold side.

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The Little Tweet That Could?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 290

Things continued to get worse for the gold market through the dog days of July. We're all playing "how low can it go" now. The only good news in the gold market is that the bearish positioning is now almost as extreme as the bullish positioning in the US Dollar market. We're overdue for some mean revision.

We finally got a feasibility study and a resource estimate we've been waiting for and both were positive. The other resource estimate we've been waiting for is rumoured to be very close but, well, engineers.

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Gut Check

From the HRA Journal: Issue 289

Ugly, ugly, ugly. Yet more proof that trying to predict the gold market short term is a mug's game. The metals markets didn't do us any favours as June wore on but at least we got good news from several HRA list companies to cushion the blow.

I'm expecting more good news on several fronts soon, including most of the companies working on resource estimates and feasibility studies that were delayed. Note to self—Don't offer guesses on third-party study timing either.

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From the HRA Journal: Issue 288

Buckle up. We could have a smooth ride over the next few trading sessions, but that seems like an over-optimistic scenario. There are several market moving events that will determine the short and medium term trajectory of the precious metals markets and set the tone for the summer.

Based on recent history, we should be just ahead of the start of a gold rally but I'm not getting cocky until I see the actual Fed announcement since it's the rate hike trajectory after the expected increase next week that really matters.

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Are We There Yet?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 286

It increasingly feels like we may soon get the gold price move we’ve been waiting for. I thought we wouldn’t see it until autumn, but I now think we could get a spring rally. That will help all the gold explorers and developers on the HRA list. Several of the latter are already outperforming their peer groups.

Improving sentiment should also help explorers, though I continue to think the best gains in that part of the space will be reserved for companies looking for something new. I’ve been avoiding adding too many companies that focus on recycling projects I’ve seen once or twice or more times before.

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The Old Normal

From the HRA Journal: Issue 285

Gold got a nice lift off after a widely expected rate hike, but it’s been flat to down as markets have been trading very strangely against each other.  We’ve seen continued high levels of volatility, but those haven’t translated to real risk aversion on the part of equity traders.

Add the politics, namely a trade skirmish between the US and China that could still potentially become a trade war, and we have a market that probably should be more concerned than it seems to be.  Traders are not taking the US president seriously, or at least are assuming cooler heads in the White House will prevail.  I’m not sure that’s realistic anymore as the list of cooler heads at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave seems to be getting shorter and shorter. Read More

Conference Week

From the HRA Journal: Issue 284

It was a busy week at both MIF and PDAC.  News flow has slowed right down now though.  I do expect news in the next couple of weeks from a handful of HRA list companies that have drill and field programs underway.  Those are listed in the first page of the update section.

A return of risk on markets and expectations of a Fed rate hike this month have kept gold in the lower part of its recent trading range.  The last few times the Fed raised rates we saw good gold rallies following them. I’m hoping for another one after the March Fed meeting. Read More

Tug of War

From the HRA Journal: Issue 283

The markets have calmed down a bit but the White House is injecting plenty of political uncertainty.  I’m surprised Wall St is taking things as well as it is.  Seems like traders think tax cuts (excuse the pun) trump everything else.  We’ll see.  The complacency didn't work out so well a month ago so I wouldn’t get carried away with it.

I’m finishing this issue at PDAC, having just finished a highly successful inaugural Toronto MIF. I should really be trolling the booths, but the news has been piling up and I wanted to get these updates off to you.  Note that the “news cut off” is March 2nd.  There were lots more news releases as I was finishing this today, and I expect a bunch more tomorrow.  Those will be dealt with in the next issue which I’ll start this weekend.  I had planned to add a copper explorer that is already familiar to SD subscribers in this issue but there were so many updates there wasn’t room.  I’ll get to it in the next issue.  I don’t expect any short-term news from that company, so it shouldn’t make much difference. 

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It's Official

From the HRA Journal: Issue 282

Well, THAT was exciting, wasn’t it?

No?  OK, things did get a bit hairy there and its too early yet to say that we’re out of the woods.  Traders are still extremely skittish and will be for a while.  We’ve had a couple of green days in a row, but they were not booming up days compared to the falls that preceded them.  Plenty of smart traders are counselling people not to be too quick to buy the dip. 

That’s generally good advice when you get a real 10%+ correction.  Even if it reverses right away it’s not unusual for it to revisit the low and often it doesn’t hold it.  Note my comments near the end of the editorial about tomorrow’s US CPI print.  If this really is all about yields, and it seems to be, markets will not be happy if there is even a baby inflation spike tomorrow that wasn’t expected. Read More


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