From the HRA Journal: Issue 283
The markets have calmed down a bit but the White House is injecting plenty of political uncertainty. I’m surprised Wall St is taking things as well as it is. Seems like traders think tax cuts (excuse the pun) trump everything else. We’ll see. The complacency didn't work out so well a month ago so I wouldn’t get carried away with it.
I’m finishing this issue at PDAC, having just finished a highly successful inaugural Toronto MIF. I should really be trolling the booths, but the news has been piling up and I wanted to get these updates off to you. Note that the “news cut off” is March 2nd. There were lots more news releases as I was finishing this today, and I expect a bunch more tomorrow. Those will be dealt with in the next issue which I’ll start this weekend. I had planned to add a copper explorer that is already familiar to SD subscribers in this issue but there were so many updates there wasn’t room. I’ll get to it in the next issue. I don’t expect any short-term news from that company, so it shouldn’t make much difference.
From the HRA Journal: Issue 282
Well, THAT was exciting, wasn’t it?
No? OK, things did get a bit hairy there and its too early yet to say that we’re out of the woods. Traders are still extremely skittish and will be for a while. We’ve had a couple of green days in a row, but they were not booming up days compared to the falls that preceded them. Plenty of smart traders are counselling people not to be too quick to buy the dip.
That’s generally good advice when you get a real 10%+ correction. Even if it reverses right away it’s not unusual for it to revisit the low and often it doesn’t hold it. Note my comments near the end of the editorial about tomorrow’s US CPI print. If this really is all about yields, and it seems to be, markets will not be happy if there is even a baby inflation spike tomorrow that wasn’t expected. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 280
So far, so good. That may not be your immediate take away as you read the rest of the first page but I’m fairly content with how the first month of the year is unfolding. Yes, I think we may be in for an immanent correction on the major equity markets. But I think that is a GOOD thing, not a bad one. We are way, way overdue for one. The longer the big markets run without some sort of corrective selling, the more likely it is that the next drawdown is a major, not a minor one. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 278
Thanks again to those of you who came out to MIF on November 10th and 11th. We had a full house again and a great group of speakers and presenters. The newsletter writer presentations have been uploaded to the Beneath the Surface channel on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/user/BeneathTheSurfaceBTS) and the corporate presentation will soon follow for those of you that missed it or want to listen to them again.
As the editorial notes, it’s tough to be a buyer this time of year. Tax loss selling as a major feature of the junior resource sector and so is generally weak Q4 gold sentiment. You shouldn’t be buying just because something is cheap but cheap is better than dear if it’s a stock you already like for other reasons. I’ve noted a few I like in the updates. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 277
Apologies for this issue coming out as late as it has. I’ve been down with a cold and on antihistamines for a week. I rarely catch colds, which might explain why I don’t write well when I’m drugged up. Several companies released news in the last 36 hours and, since the issue was late already I figured I’d better include them. So, long update section again.
Gold continued to struggle since the last issue but copper made a comeback and other base metals at least held their own. The recent USD uptick hurt them a little, but base metals are pro-cyclical, so if things aren’t going well for gold near term, they should go better for copper and zinc. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 276
Well that sucked. After a move to $1380 gold quickly turned tail and gave up its gains. That took some of the speculative shine off the market. One piece of good news is that gold equities are still trading (slightly) better than bullion which is generally a positive sign even when gold’s behaving poorly.
Northern Hemisphere reporting is in full swing and there are A LOT of updates. Many are drill results though a few are from companies with drill results still to come. Notwithstanding the drop in gold prices, companies that have reported strong drill results, especially the high-grade variety, are still getting well rewarded. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 275
After a few false starts, gold has finally broken through $1300 convincingly, and looks comfortable at its current perch at $1340. It would be easy to blame it all on politics but, as I noted in the last issue, I don’t think that’s the case. It’s an overdue move and the initial move through $1300 occurred before Kim’s provocative launch of a missile over Japan.
Politics is an issue too, as we saw when gold dropped $10 when a bipartisan agreement was reached to push the debt ceiling fight back three months. But, again, it’s important to note gold bounced back from that loss almost immediately. There are a lot of moving parts at play in the market and most seem to favour gold for a change. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 274
The USD got its bounce thanks to the payroll report but it wasn't a strong one and is dissipating already. Surprising the bounce wasn't larger given the huge short position.
North Korea turned out to be a whipsaw. The gold price was lifted, then knocked back, as the tension mounted then receded. Gold has other drivers and having the political one ease off is better for us in the long run. I don’t think the downtrend in the USD is over for reasons I go into in the editorial. Seeing gold prices rise on days the big markets are doing well is a good thing. I want to see gold getting bought because people think it’s cheap, not because they see some catastrophe on the horizon. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 273
The trend to a weaker US Dollar and strengthening gold, and base metal, prices continues. As I note in the main editorial, there are 2-3 data points dead ahead that should determine whether the oversold greenback gets a bounce. I say “should” because the clown show in Washington keeps getting in the way of economic metrics, so who knows?
Even if the USD bounces after this week’s payroll report the downtrend is very strong and will be hard to reverse. Gold really should be trading higher already. We won’t get a lot of lift for gold producers until it does I think. Read More
From the HRA Journal: Issue 272
Things changed a lot in the past two weeks. The US Fed’s promises to keep tightening financial conditions look a lot shakier than they did at the start of the month, thanks to a series of weak economic readings in the US.
I still think we need to be wary of central bankers but with bond yields softening again and plenty of money flows into the major markets things look less dangerous than they did in June. Not safe, mind you. Overvaluation is and will continue to be a problem. Overvalued, complacent markets are always in greater danger of a larger fall but I don’t see a near term catalyst for one. Read More
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