Free Editorial
Some Cracks Appear
From the HRA Journal: Issue 267
I was about to hit the send key on this one when the proverbial crap hit the fan in the form of a US missile attack on Syria. I think that is a tempest in a teapot but it could have some secondary effects that will make things more interesting. The US rallies around its president when bullets start flying so this action might give Trump’s terrible approval ratings a big bounce. Trump seems to view the world in simple terms. Here’s hoping he doesn’t decide an air strike is a nice little pick me up every time he feels unloved... Read More
Colour Me Surprised (Ok, Not)
From the HRA Journal: Issue 266
The Fed raised rates as expected and the world didn’t come to an end, also as expected. Metals have had a nice bounce post Fed that I’m fairly comfortable will continue in gold’s case at least and perhaps base metals as well.
As always there was a deluge of PDAC news, much of it less than noteworthy. The update section is pretty long. The conference itself was positive with slightly higher attendance than last year. Most were concerned about “the Curse” as gold and most metal prices were falling every day during the show. The recent reversal has calmed some nerves though, if its maintained. Read More
The Curse
From the HRA Journal: Issue 265
Traders are starting to bail in advance of PDAC. That’s usually a wise move, though the editorial lays out some counter arguments. Even if your preference is to do some selling I think you need to be selective and look at which stocks are more likely to weather a pullback.
It may seem counter-intuitive but I think some of the earlier stage stocks could be the stronger ones through the next couple of months. When traders decide to get behind a story, they can more than counter act the seasonal sellers. We’re starting to see that behaviour in a couple of the early stage companies HRA tracks, with the first company in the update section being a prime example. Read More
And So It Begins
From the HRA Journal: Issue 264
Welcome to the Trump Years, and the Year of the Rooster. The markets were entertained, until today. Traders seemed to assume Trump would enact all the things Wall St liked and none of the things it doesn’t. However, the immigration ban looks in its final form it should disabuse Wall St of the notion that it’s going to get to call all the shots.
Trump has filled his cabinet with a number of the usual suspects from the usual power centres but he’s also shown he hasn’t given up on his tendency to react viscerally to events. That leaves room for plenty of unpleasant surprises. I think the honeymoon—in terms of market volatility at least—is now over. It remains to be seen if we get a bigger drawdown in coming weeks on top of that. Read More
A Pivotal Year?
From the HRA Journal: Issue 263
Gold took another drubbing after the December Fed meeting but its managed to fight its way back above the level it was trading at right before the meeting.
It’s still well below the levels it traded at before the US election. The Trump honeymoon isn’t over yet though NY markets are finding it tougher to make headway. The crowd at CNBC has been doing the “Dow 20K” cheer for a month now. The market still hasn’t breached that newsworthy but otherwise meaningless level but it’s very, very close. Read More
The Inflation President?
From the December 13, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 262
Vive Le Trump. Vive Le DJIA!
It’s all good. Unless you own gold stocks. We’ve endured a couple more weeks of pain. All bottoms have been false bottoms so far. We may have to survive a couple more but the FOMC meeting tomorrow should set the tone. I’m betting on higher gold prices going through year end. I am hedging my bets a bit though. Note that most of the “”buys” and “strong buys” in the update section are predominantly exploration stories. Those can buck the trend if they deliver and move even more if gold puts the wind at their back. Read More
Leading and Lagging
From the November 24, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 261
Things DIDN’T go as expected, with Trump winning the US election and markets embracing the change rather than fearing it. That has led to a serious breakdown in the gold price. The next big items are the November payroll report and December Fed meeting. We’ll have to see how markets react to those events but the odds of a lower for longer gold price shouldn’t be underestimated.
Elephant in the Room
From the November 7, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 260
I’ve always considered politics a little bit crazy. “Little bit” doesn’t begin to describe the gong show that passes for an election in the US. The good news is that it will soon be over. Good riddance.
The gold sector continues to tread water. Things look a little better on the base metal side though there are reasons to exercise a bit of caution with some of them as I detail in the editorial. Read More
First, the Bad News
From the October 18, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 259
Gold had another big leg down in October and that has the naysayers out in force. I’m not that surprised or dismayed. Scepticism is a feature of young bull markets. We should use it to our advantage rather than agonizing about it.
I think we’re about to start trending higher immanently, for both the gold price and the resource sector. We may actually see a pattern similar to last year if the Fed makes good on its promise to raise rates in December. Read More
Bait and Switch
From the September 28th, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 258
We didn’t have nearly the excitement I was hoping for during September. A few companies got big reactions to their drill results but they were negative more often than positive. Reporting also wasn't as quick as I’d hoped in many cases. The silver lining there is that we are still holding a number of lottery tickets and waiting to see if our numbers will come up.
The Fed ducked yet again, to the surprise of very few. That hasn’t helped gold prices as much as I would have expected. Traders in the larger markets seem to have gone “risk-on“ again very quickly That didn’t work too well the last couple of times. We’ll see if the third time is the charm. Read More
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